College football Week 6 odds, picks against the spread: Will there be any surprise upsets this week? (2024)

After last week’s marquee matchup in Tuscaloosa rearranged things in the top 10, college football’s Week 6 finds several playoff hopefuls looking to keep their chances alive in tough tests.

No. 9 Missouri will be in action first, traveling to College Station after a bye week for a must-win game as underdogs against No. 25 Texas A&M. The Tigers have underperformed thus far, barely escaping Vanderbilt in overtime and previously needing a late surge to sneak past Boston College. Both contests were at home, and neither saw the expected offensive fireworks from Mizzou. A&M’s defense has looked ferocious since their early loss to Notre Dame, and Missouri quarterback Brady Cook and his wideouts will have to look far better than they have to survive the Aggie pass rush.

In the afternoon slate, No. 3 Ohio State hosts 3-1 Iowa. The Hawkeyes’ ground-and-pound style will have to be at its peak for the Hawkeyes to cover the sizable spread. The Buckeyes are tied for third in points per game and have the nation’s best defense, allowing just 6.8 points per contest. Iowa is right there with them, ranking 10th on defense and featuring one of the best rushing attacks around led by junior Kaleb Johnson. Iowa still doesn’t pass effectively, so look for the Hawkeyes to try to shorten the game with prolonged drives.

Michigan refuses to go quietly from the top-10, rattling off three wins after being manhandled by Texas in Week 2. The Wolverines face Washington on the road in a primetime rematch of last year’s title game and are underdogs despite the Huskies’ 3-2 record. It will be the first road game for the Wolverines, and their hosts are undefeated at home this season.

Elsewhere, Florida State hosts Clemson as a two-score underdog, Miami goes to Cal for what could be a tricky late start and Ole Miss looks to rebound against a South Carolina team that is getting healthier on offense.

—J.J. Bailey

All games listed are on Saturday. Kickoff times are Eastern. Rankings are from the AP poll. All odds are from BetMGM. For information on streaming,click here.

No. 9 Missouri at No. 25 Texas A&M — Noon on ABC

The bye week couldn’t come fast enough for No. 9 Missouri, which narrowly escaped Boston College and was taken to overtime by Vanderbilt at home in back-to-back weeks. Coming off hiatus, Mizzou is now a road underdog in a prove-it game against

Despite entering the year as CFP hopefuls, the Tigers have yet to flash the offensive explosiveness that earned them such high early regard. In the Aggies, they’ll face their toughest defense yet and a pass rush that has been highly effective at disrupting opposing quarterbacks.

A&M’s sack totals may not jump off the stat sheet, but thanks to talented edge rushers Nic Scourton and Shemar Stewart, along with stud defensive tackle Shemar Turner, they’ve forced 54 hurries and a 57 percent completion rate. The Aggies excel at blowing up opponents’ backfields, but Missouri’s outside zone rushing attack is the perfect counter, especially with running back Nate Noel’s ability to find gaps. The downside of such a vertical pass rush is it opens seams, and Noel has shown decisiveness and bursts when given daylight. That also stresses the A&M linebackers, who will already be contending with the most talented passing attack they’ve seen.

Luther Burden III’s big play ability is often the focus, but Missouri’s pass-catching talent is deep enough to stress even great cover teams, which Texas A&M is not (ranked 94th by PFF).

But the Aggies aren’t looking for a shootout. Though they have yet to name a quarterback for the game, the likely choice is Marcel Reed. He’s not the passer Conner Weigman is, but that may be a good thing for the Aggies. The Tigers have one of the best pass defenses in the nation but have flailed against mobile quarterbacks (see: Boston College and Vanderbilt).

If Reed and stud running back Le’Veon Moss can lengthen possessions on the ground, A&M’s pass rush will be fresh. But if this goes over the 48.5-point line, it will mean the Tigers offense finally woke up, and that’s a nightmare for the Aggies.

—J.J. Bailey

Picks against the spread

Iowa at No. 3 Ohio State — 3:30 p.m. on CBS

After opening Big Ten play with wins in their conference openers, Iowa and Ohio State continue conference play on Saturday, with the Buckeyes nearly three-touchdown favorites at home.

No. 3 Ohio State enters the game as one of the most dominant teams in the country on both sides of the ball, boasting both a top-five scoring offense (48.8 points per game) and top-five scoring defense (6.8 points per game against).

The big player to watch is, once again, going to be freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith who already has 19 catches for 364 yards and five touchdowns. Along with incredible production, he has also made several highlight-reel plays and has looked borderline unstoppable in the Buckeyes’ passing game.

It is a similar story for Ohio State’s ground game where running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson are both averaging more than eight yards per carry through the first four games.

After being one of the worst offensive teams in the country a year ago (132nd out of 133 programs in points per game), Iowa’s offense has had way more scoring punch so far this season, topping the 30-point mark in three of its first four games. The Hawkeyes scored 30 points in just two games over the previous two seasons combined. Some of that production has come against sub-par opponents, but the Hawkeyes did score 31 points in their Big Ten opener against Minnesota.

It is going to be a significantly steeper test on Saturday afternoon on the road against one of the best teams in the country.

—Adam Gretz

Picks against the spread

No. 12 Ole Miss at South Carolina — 3:30 p.m. on ESPN

College football can take a fan base from lofty expectations to survival mode in a few short hours. Ole Miss was cruising through the first four games of the season, and then the Rebels came crashing down in a shocking home loss to Kentucky. Ole Miss was a 15.5-point favorite last week, so even as a solid favorite this week at South Carolina, Rebels fans won’t be taking anything for granted.

The extra twist in this game is that South Carolina’s best performance of the season so far was a 31-6 beatdown of Kentucky, meaning South Carolina’s best game came against the team that Ole Miss played its worst game against. Will that matter? The transitive property is nice in theory, but college football often contorts that idea.

South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers could be due to return after getting hurt a few weeks ago against LSU. He didn’t play in a 50-7 win against Akron two weeks ago, and the Gamecocks were on bye last week. Running back Raheim Sanders could also return after getting just one carry and leaving with an injury two weeks ago.

A full-strength South Carolina, especially in Columbia, is difficult opposition. This is no easy bounce-back spot for Ole Miss despite the two-score spread.

—Dan Santaromita

Picks against the spread

No. 15 Clemson at Florida State — 7 p.m. on ESPN

Clemson-Florida State was penciled in as a massive game in the ACC before the season, but only one of these teams has held up their end of the bargain to maintain that status. Florida State limps into this one with a 1-4 record and as a two-touchdown underdog at home.

Clemson has bounced back from a Week 1 blowout loss to Georgia. There’s no shame in losing to Georgia, even when it’s 34-3, and the Tigers have recovered nicely. Clemson has put up 40 points or more in three straight games. Granted, App State, NC State and Stanford don’t make a murderer’s row, but that’s also not awful opposition. Cade Klubnik’s stock was not high after that loss to Georgia, but the junior has 12 touchdowns and 842 passing yards over the past three games and hasn’t needed to finish any of those games.

While Klubnik has rebounded, Florida State’s D.J. Uiagalelei has continued to struggle. The fifth-year senior has thrown six interceptions through five games and has completed only 53.8 percent of his passes. Now he’s out with an injury suffered last week at SMU. Brock Glenn, who started the ACC title game last season when Jordan Travis was hurt, is expected to start. Glenn came in late against SMU and had four incompletions over the final two drives of the game.

FSU has been a good under team this year, with the under hitting in each of its first four games. Last week’s 42-16 loss at SMU was the first over in a Florida State game this season.

—Dan Santaromita

Picks against the spread

No. 10 Michigan at Washington — 7:30 p.m. on NBC

The last time Michigan and Washington played each other, it was for the national championship. On Saturday night, the two teams will meet again, this time as Big Ten foes, with the defending champions installed as slight road underdogs.

The 10th-ranked Wolverines (4-1) have bounced back since a Week 2 loss to Texas but are desperate for more balance on offense. Running back Kalel Mullings has been a revelation for new head coach Sherrone Moore, with 423 rushing yards and six touchdowns in the last three games.

The quarterback position, however, has been a consistent weak spot with less than 120 passing yards per game and more interceptions (seven) than touchdowns (five). Whether it’s Alex Orji or Davis Warren under center for this game, the results through the air may not look any better against a Huskies defense that ranks sixth nationally (128 yards per game) against the pass.

Throwing the football has not been an issue for Washington (3-2). Quarterback Will Rogers, who transferred from Mississippi State, has managed the transition to first-year head coach Jedd Fisch’s system seamlessly. He’s among the national leaders with a 74.8 completion percentage and has thrown 10 touchdown passes with no interceptions. There’s also running back Jonah Coleman, who, like Mullings, is averaging more than seven yards per carry and 100 rushing yards per game.

Michigan is perfectly comfortable winning games by running the ball and playing tough defense. It’s a recipe that has helped produce three straight Big Ten titles. The problem is that these Wolverines may be too one-dimensional on offense, and they are giving up more than twice as many points per game (21.4) as last season (10.4).

—Mark Ross

Picks against the spread

No. 8 Miami at Cal — 10:30 p.m. on ESPN

Miami must feel fortunate to survive last week’s dramatic finish against Virginia Tech. How will the Hurricanes respond to having their fates decided by a last-second replay? Miami is a two-score favorite at Cal in one of Saturday’s late kickoffs.

The Hurricanes were losing on the scoreboard with 0 seconds on the clock against the Hokies before a replay review overturned a Hail Mary. Quarterback Cam Ward, who transferred to the U this season, showed his first cracks of the season with three turnovers. But he’s second in the country in passing yards (1,782) and has emerged as a Heisman favorite.

Ward will be a tough test for a Cal defense which is allowing just 12.8 points per game. The Golden Bears are coming off a bye week (and a 14-9 loss at Florida State the week before) and are hosting ESPN’s “College Gameday” for the first time ever. The place will be rocking. It’s also a late kickoff, which is amusing because Miami will likely be playing well past 1 a.m. in Coral Gables for a conference game.

—Dan Santaromita

Picks against the spread

Wild card picks

Picking only the biggest games is not the smartest way to bet, so each picker is adding another bet with everything from every game on the table. We are tracking the records in these picks as well as counting them in the overall picks standings.

Austin Mock:San Diego State -2.5 vs. Hawaii

Chris Vannini:Navy -8.5 at Air Force

Dan Santaromita: Louisville -7 vs. SMU

David Ubben: Stanford +9.5 vs. Virginia Tech

Picks records

(Photo of Cam Ward: Julio Aguilar / Getty Images)