Last season was all about the rookie for the San Antonio Spurs. Victor Wembanyama dominated headlines and jersey sales. Media day was all about the introduction of the franchise’s next superstar. Expectations were set incredibly high, and Wembanyama somehow surpassed them.
The Spurs’ 2024 first-round pick has not gotten the same fanfare. It makes sense. After all, it’s not every day that a 7-foot-5 who can hit step-back jumpers is available in the draft. Young guards with upside are about a dime a dozen – but not all of them are 6-foot-6 and were starters on an NCAA championship team at 18. Due to the lack of hype around his rookie season, it’s hard to know exactly what to expect from Castle this year.
A good place to start is Castle’s stats as a freshman at UCONN. Playing 27 minutes per game, Castle averaged 11.1 points, 2.9 assists, 4.7 rebounds and 1.5 turnovers while shooting 47.2% from the field, 26.7% from deep and 75.5% on free throws. Castle was a defensive force who guarded wings and ball-handlers alike. Offensively, he took turns playing on and off the ball, typically alongside other ball-handlers like Cam Spencer and Tristan Newton. UCONN used him frequently as a screener, cutter and pick-and-roll ball handler. You can find a full breakdown of his game here.
Castle’s role with the Spurs should be similar to how he played at UCONN. With veterans like Chris Paul and Tre Jones on the roster, he will likely play more off the ball or share ball-handling duties with another guard. He should fit in well with the Spurs offense that emphasizes multiple ball-handlers, passing and screening at all positions.
It’s hard to find a fit in the offensive lineup for Castle. Wembanyama, Paul, Devin Vassell, Jeremy Sochan and Harrison Barnes feel like locks. Gregg Popovich has surprised us with starting lineups before. Even with the bench unit, it’s hard to imagine Castle is tasked with a major offensive load while he plays alongside Jones, Keldon Johnson and Zach Collins.
Castle should make an immediate impact on the defensive end. He plays with a tremendous motor and has great length and strength at the point of attack. He’ll have plenty of opportunities to get into the passing lanes playing alongside Jones and Paul. In lineups where he is the primary ball-handler, he will give the Spurs an advantage at the point of attack. As all rookies do, he will need time to learn to be an effective off-ball defender. His motor should help him fight through screens and get to his spots.
So Castle is a rookie coming off the bench and doesn’t seem to be the focal point of the offensive game plan. What does the stat line like for a player that fits that description?
I compared him to another big guard the Spurs drafted somewhat recently. Dejounte Murray’s second season (using it instead of his rookie year due to games played) he started in just 48 games, averaging 8.1 points, 2.9 assists and 1.2 steals while shooting 44.3% from the field, 26.5% from three and 70.9% from the free throw line. He also made the All-NBA defensive second team. The counting stats could match what Castle can provide this season. I would be surprised if Castle is a top-10 defender in the current NBA landscape, but he should still be a big addition.
I was also curious how top-drafted guards have fared in the last 5 years. I looked at the stats for all guards selected in the top-5 dating back to 2019, and came away with a few conclusions:
- Rookie guards are typically pretty inefficient. Amen Thompson and Ja Morant were the only players to shoot above 45% from the field, and they both shot sub 35% from three.
- Don’t expect a rookie guard to be a floor general in year one. Only LaMelo Ball and Morant averaged more than 6 assists in their rookie seasons.
- Mistakes will happen. All but one guard (Thompson, who played a lot of minutes as a wing/forward as well) averaged over 2 turnovers a game, and half of them averaged 3 or more.
- There is a strong track record for top-5 selected guards in the last five years. Anthony Edwards, Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green, Jalen Suggs, Darius Garland, Morant and Ball have all turned into good to great NBA players.
Castle will surely go through some struggles as a rookie. Wembanyama is the exception, not the rule. Despite that, he should be an impact defender and another solid contributor off the bench. Luckily, he’s not in a position where he needs to be a go-to guy and dominate right away. He is in a good position to learn from the veterans on the roster and develop into a long-term piece of the Spurs’ young core. A great rookie season would be icing on the cake.
